AMD Won't Take TSMC 3nm Until Next Year
According to TSMC, the 3nm process will be produced in the second half of this year but will not be mass-produced until next year, while the 2nm process will not be produced until 2025. The VIP customers of these two generations of technology are Intel and Apple, who are in great demand and rich, and are TSMC's priority customers.
Other semiconductor companies will have to wait for Apple and Intel to ship their hands on 3nm and, in the future, 2nm capacity. According to DigiTime, AMD, NVIDIA and Mediatek are also interested in negotiating with TSMC for capacity allocation, but they won't be able to start talks until late 2023 or sometime in 2024. The first is 3nm process, followed by 2nm process, but certainly much later than Apple, Intel.
Let alone the further 2nm process, it is impossible for AMD to get TSMC's capacity allocation in 2023. If it is possible to negotiate in 2024, the production will be at the end of the year, and it is more likely that it will have the chance to get stable capacity in 2025.
From this point of view, it is unlikely that THE Zen5 will go directly to 3nm in the next generation of AMD Zen4 after 5nm. Unless AMD can wait until the end of 2025 to release the Zen4, it will compete with three generations of Intel processors.
So it makes more sense for the Zen5 to continue to be polished using TSMC's 5nm process. After all, the Zen4 debuts a lot of new stuff, and AMD isn't in a hurry to give up on just one. Zen2 to Zen3 are 7nm processes, but Zen3's architecture has improved significantly, and Zen4 to Zen5 should follow the same path.